Housing affordability likely to get worse before it gets better as listings hit all-time low

Stephanie Hughes
The Vancouver Sun

‘There are currently fewer properties listed for sale in Canada than at any point on record’

 The number of newly listed properties fell about three per cent from November to December. Photo by National Post

Canadian home prices rose by more than 17 per cent in 2021 but listings ended the year at an all-time low, according to December data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association on Monday.

CREA said sales in December were up by 0.2 per cent month-over-month, but down 9.9 per cent from a record level posted in December 2020. The number of newly listed properties fell about three per cent from November to December.

“There are currently fewer properties listed for sale in Canada than at any point on record,” said CREA’s senior economist Shaun Cathcart in the release. “So unfortunately, the housing affordability problem facing the country is likely to get worse before it gets better.”

The national average home price stood at $713,500 in December, coming off a record $720,000 in November. That marked an increase of 17.7 per cent over December 2020. The MLS® Home Price Index, CREA’s tool for assessing home prices and trends, saw an even bigger jump, up a record 26.6 per cent year-over-year as a lack of supply continued to put upward pressure on housing. CREA’s benchmark home price hit a record high of $811,700 in December.

“With the housing supply issues facing the country having only gotten worse to start 2022, take any decline in sales early in the year with a grain of salt because the demand hasn’t gone away, there just won’t be much to buy until a little later in this spring,” CREA chair Cliff Stevenson said in the release. “But when those listings eventually start to show up, the spring market this year will almost certainly be another headline grabber.”

While the winter months usually see a lull in market activity, the real estate industry has been experiencing a heated market.

“The winter so far has been boisterous,” Phil Soper, chief executive officer at Royal LePage, told Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn last week. “Volumes have been higher than typical at this time of year. It looks a lot like the winter of 2020 … and I think that is the theme that’s going to carry right through the spring market.”

Christopher Alexander, president of RE/MAX Canada, told the Financial Post that listings tend to be lower during the holiday season, but he was taken aback how few listings there were.

“Typically, it’s a normal time of the year for listings to be low,” Alexander said. “But I am surprised to see even a lower amount of listings than previous years, and previous normal years … because prices are have gone up so much. So, it’s a big challenge.”

Alexander pointed to the supply crisis, which is putting further pressure on affordability.

“It’s becoming clearer and clearer that we haven’t planned properly enough for our population growth,” Alexander said, adding that Canada has high immigration targets without a plan to house the newcomers. “We’ve got a serious challenge here. I think a lot of the hype that we’re hearing recently about investors and taxes like the home equity tax is all a big distraction, in my opinion, from the real issue and that is we don’t have a solution to our supply challenge.”

Supply shortages have become a critical issue for the Canadian housing market. A report by the Bank of Nova Scotia found that Ontario, Alberta and Manitoba have the lowest housing stock per capita, exacerbating affordability issues.

“Policymakers are starting to say the right things, but now they have to act to change this course we’re on,” CREA’s Cathcart said. “An aggressive national push to build more homes is what will address the issue, but it will probably have to be a greater amount of building than anything we’ve ever undertaken. A touch over the status quo won’t cut it.”

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