After taking insurance into account, and assuming a 5% down payment, this translates to an average of 78% of a condo buyer’s down payment lost. As a disclaimer,Better Dwellingsaid that this calculation did not include any possible payments over the period due to the widespread loss of income nationwide.

Using the same calculation, Toronto was found to be especially worse off. Average condo price decline from April was at 1.86%, translating to a negative 111.2% return in equity. Even including payments over the period only leads to around 0.827% equity.

In June, the Mortgage Bankers Association estimated that 4.3 million homeowners were in forbearance programs as a result of the economic impacts of the pandemic. Many of those homeowners have begun to exit forbearance or are nearing the end of the first 180-day forbearance period provided for borrowers with federally backed mortgages under the CARES Act. In a letter to Kraninger, Brown said that the end of forbearance could result in a wave of improper foreclosures.

Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Dominion Lending Centres, also called the CMHC predictions “overly pessimistic” considering that Canada’s average home price went up by 1.5% in August.

Helmut Pastrick, chief economist at Central 1, echoed Cooper’s assessment, saying that prices are actually on the rise overall and that historically low mortgage rates will impel a more dynamic market, leading to further price growth.